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Capital Markets Intelligence
Q2 2026
June 2026

Africa & Emerging Market
Origination Update.

Three themes define the quarter: the rate window opening for first-mover listings, VHP's active pipeline entering the execution phase, and institutional demand at its highest since 2021.

00 · At a Glance

Three themes define Q2 2026.

01
The rate window is opening.
Rate normalisation is creating the optimal listing window for first-mover growth companies targeting US exchanges in H2 2026. One additional Fed cut is priced before year-end, compressing the risk-free rate and expanding growth company multiples.
02
The pipeline is entering the execution phase.
VHP's two active mandates in fintech infrastructure and insurtech are in substantive engagement with management teams. The origination work of the past two quarters is reaching its natural conclusion.
03
Institutional demand is at its highest since 2021.
European and US institutional appetite for first-mover emerging market frontier category listings is at its strongest since 2021. VHP's execution partnerships are confirmed, in place, and ready to absorb deal flow.
"VHP was built on a specific observation: that the most significant capital markets opportunity in the world right now is not in the transactions that established firms are competing for. It is in the companies they cannot reach. The emerging market businesses that have achieved genuine institutional scale, carry credible backing, and are ready for a public listing, but whose size or geography places them below the threshold of the advisors who would otherwise serve them. We built the infrastructure to serve those companies. The conversations that listings are built from are happening now."
Londizwi Mdunge Chief Executive Officer · Von Hartmann & Partners · June 2026
01 · Global Markets

Selective IPO recovery. Bifurcation defines the market.

US Equity Markets

The S&P 500 ended the quarter broadly flat following significant intra-quarter volatility driven by Federal Reserve communications on rate normalisation. The Nasdaq Composite outperformed marginally, supported by continued institutional demand for high-growth technology and AI infrastructure companies where earnings visibility is improving.

The IPO market showed selective recovery. Transaction volumes increased quarter-on-quarter but remain below the 2021 cycle peak. The defining characteristic is bifurcation: companies with proven revenue models, institutional backing, and clear paths to profitability are being well received; pre-revenue companies face a more demanding institutional audience.

For the companies in VHP's origination pipeline, this environment is directly constructive.

UK & European Markets

The LSE continued its structural reform agenda. The FCA's PISCES framework creates new private company share trading mechanisms that reduce friction between private and public markets — a positive development for international issuers building their UK institutional investor base ahead of formal listing.

European institutional demand for emerging market public equity exposure remains structural and is not abating. VHP's UK execution partnerships are confirmed and expanding through engagement with additional mid-market partners.

The companies that understand the international listing premium and act in the current window will set the valuation benchmarks that every company in their category references for years.

02 · Rate Environment

Federal Reserve holds. One cut priced before year-end.

+1
Cut priced before year-end
Fed held rates steady in Q2 following two cuts in late 2025 and early 2026.

The impact on VHP's pipeline. Declining rates historically produce multiple expansion in growth company valuations and increased institutional appetite for emerging market equities as the risk-free rate compresses.

Companies listing into a normalising rate environment capture better valuations than those that listed at peak rates in 2022 and 2023. VHP's pipeline is positioned to benefit from this dynamic in Q3 and Q4 2026.

For emerging market listings specifically, the compression of the risk-free rate structurally improves the relative attractiveness of higher-growth assets. The first-mover positioning of VHP's active mandates means they capture the opening of this window ahead of any subsequent deal flow.

03 · Africa & Emerging Markets

The structural case for international listings strengthened in Q2.

JSE
Positive ZAR, compressed USD
JSE delivered modest positive returns in rand terms but underperformed in dollar terms as currency weakness compressed the dollar return for international holders.
Nigeria
Recovery trajectory continued
Nigerian equities continued their recovery trajectory in Q2. The direction of travel is positive and supports the case for capital markets activity from strong Nigerian issuers seeking international exchange exposure.
East Africa
Resilient, FDI-supported
East African markets showed resilience supported by continued foreign direct investment inflows. The structural investment case for the region remains intact and is attracting sustained institutional interest.
The structural argument for African companies listing internationally rather than locally continued to strengthen: deeper liquidity, broader institutional coverage, and higher valuation multiples for comparable companies.
04 · Sector Observations

Four sectors with active institutional demand in Q2.

Fintech Infrastructure
Strong institutional interest

Payments infrastructure combining high-frequency transaction volume with working capital products maintained strong institutional interest. Fund lifecycle pressure is creating specific near-term listing momentum for a select group of African fintech companies.

Healthcare Infrastructure
Increasing attention

Scalable technology-enabled healthcare delivery attracted increasing institutional attention as the post-pandemic focus on health system resilience translated into investment appetite. Diagnostic networks, pharmacy platforms, and digital health records are the most consistently sought profiles.

Logistics & Freight
Meaningful investor interest

African B2B logistics infrastructure with institutional backing and multi-country operations attracted meaningful investor interest as the supply chain resilience narrative continued to drive capital allocation toward the sector.

Mining & Resources
Stabilisation and structural demand

Chrome pricing stabilised following Q1 volatility. Higher grade concentrate commanded meaningful premiums as Southern African supply constraints tightened effective export volumes. Copper maintained strength driven by energy transition structural demand.

05 · VHP Active Pipeline

Two active mandates. Three sectors in early origination.

MandateGeographyKey MetricsStage
Nigerian Payments & SME Banking
Fintech Infrastructure · Nasdaq Capital Market
Nigeria
300k+ active merchants ~$1B monthly transaction volume 150% year-on-year revenue growth since 2020 $30–75M indicative raise target
Active Engagement
Pan-African Embedded Insurance
Insurtech Infrastructure · US Exchange
East & West Africa
5 countries
400k+ insured lives Recurring premium revenue model First-mover scarcity on any US exchange
Active Engagement
Also in early origination: Healthcare infrastructure · B2B logistics · Mining services. Further detail as mandates progress.
06 · Partnership Network

The execution infrastructure is built and confirmed.

United States
US Execution & Legal
Anchored by a major New York securities law firm whose network encompasses over 35 investment banks and 20 funds active in the small and mid-cap US capital markets. Provides direct access to the institutional distribution infrastructure required to execute a Nasdaq or NYSE American listing.
United Kingdom
UK Capital Markets
Anchored by VHP's LSE NOMAD relationship for AIM listings, expanding through engagement with additional UK mid-market execution partners. The FCA's PISCES framework creates further pre-listing optionality for companies building their UK institutional investor base ahead of a formal listing.
Pan-African
African Legal & Regulatory
A leading pan-African law firm appointed as VHP's legal partner for capital markets transactions across LSE, HKEX, JSE, and Deutsche Börse, with specific capability in mining regulatory matters. Full cross-border legal infrastructure for any international listing originating from the continent.
07 · Outlook

Q3 2026 outlook is constructive. Institutional demand for first-mover emerging market listings on US and European exchanges is at its strongest since 2021.

The listings will follow.

01
Rate normalisation
Multiple expansion benefit to growth company valuations in H2 2026.
02
Pipeline maturity
Active mandates entering substantive engagement and approaching execution timelines.
03
Infrastructure confirmed
US, UK, and pan-African execution partnerships in place and operational.

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